The high pressure just off San francisco should dissipate the next few days causing the jet stream to shift over California and drag some Hawaii moisture our way mixed with the cold jet stream.
Not sure of snow altitude levels or amounts but it is gonna snow for at least 24 hours 14-17 February.
Will post when I know more
24 pictograph from NOAA updated daily
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/noaa/noaa.gif
Weather forecast are saying the low pressure that MIGHT occur NOW MIGHT NOT and if so very fast storm 15th-17th
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH SOME SLOW WARMING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THE FORECAST MODELS (YOU GUESSED IT) TRY AND BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE AND PUSH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INTO AND THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. I HAVE RAISED POPS TO THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THIS TIME FRAME HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT HIGH THAT THE BREAK THROUGH WILL OCCUR PER THIS MODEL RUN.
Keep us updated. Looks like several days of rain expected in the valley.
Mammoth forcaster is saying levels to 6000-7000 feet starting 14th
Two weather forecast computer models.
One says starts storming Monday the other says Tuesday.
BOTH models say storm will last to at least Thursday, and will be in waves.
Warm at first then getting cooler to 6000 feet.
Temp lows in Baersfield will be 38-42F during storm with highs in the low 60's.
So snow more likely dates 15-17 of February.
If this happens ... more storms to come.
THIS SHIFT IN THE PATTERN WILL BRING THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF
TROUGHS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS WEEKEND. THE RIDGE OVER
CALIFORNIA WILL SHIFT EAST BY MONDAY...OPENING THE DOOR TO A
TROUGH DROPPING OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS WILL WILL BRING
INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THE
GFS BRINGS THE PRECIPITATION AS EARLY AS MONDAY NIGHT WHILE THE
ECMWF HOLDS IT OFF UNTIL TUESDAY. BOTH MODELS INDICATE MORE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY FOLLOWING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY
LONGER.
Storm very likely late Monday to Thursday and likely into Sunday !
Noone is saying depth amount.
Lows Tuesday at 7000 feet in the 20's
Wednesday lows in the teens
High temp Thursday 32 @ 7000 feet
Percent chance of rain/snow Tuesday Wednesday Thursday
Los Angeles 20% 60 20
Sequoias 40 70 30
Mammoth 50 90 50
Truckee 50 90 50
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A SHIFT TO A WETTER PATTERN FOR
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE FLATTENED
A BIT AND CONTINUE SHIFT EAST SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THEN A TROUGH DROPS OUT OF THE GULF OF
ALASKA MONDAY...WITH PRECIPITATION SPREADING INTO CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA BY MONDAY EVENING. A LONGWAVE TROUGH ESTABLISHES ITSELF
ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE IMPULSES ROTATING
THROUGH IT. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER
THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY...AND POSSIBLY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK TO A FEW
DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES DURING THE PERIOD...WHILE THE
CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES WITH THE INCREASING
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION.
TROUGHS BUT THEY GENERALLY BRING THE COLDER AIR IN BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOWERING SNOW LEVELS TO AROUND 3000 FT IN THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SIERRA ZONES AND AROUND 4500 FT IN THE
MOUNTAINS OF KERN COUNTY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE A FEW TO SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH MONDAY...THEN DROPPING BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
No snow amount predictions ... yet.
Now say storm on and off Monday thru Friday most of it Wednesday-Thursday.
Local Mammoth forecaster taking WILD guess and saying 2.5 tot acc at lodge.
Can see low pressure on pic above. Low brings the cold and wet to an area.
All forecasting models still say storm Mon thru Thurs ... and then not sure.
One computer says stops on Friday and snow levels to 5000 feet. Other model says Storm thru weekend into Monday 14-21 Feb with levels to 2000-3000 feet.
Rain Tuesday 7000 feet ... Then snow to 5000 feet thru Thursday. Mammoth expects 3 inches rain and 2.5-3.5 feert snow.
Another storm Friday - Saturday ... a warm one.
Don
...
NOW saying BULK of storm NORTH of KERN ... any accumulation will be Wednesday - Thursday.
If snoiw does hit snow levels will be in the mountain passes.
AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE MONDAY IS PROGGED TO PASS MAINLY NORTH OF
THE DISTRICT...LIMITING SOMEWHAT THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
COOLING EXPECTED OVER OUR AREA. TUESDAY WILL BRING A BIT MORE
COOLING AND BETTER PRECIP CHANCES AHEAD OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT
APPROACHING TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL PRODUCE WETTTER AND COLDER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE DISTRICT WEDNESDAY...DROPPING SNOW LEVELS
INTO THE SIERRA FOOTHILLS AND BELOW PASS LEVELS IN THE KERN COUNTY
MOUNTAINS BY EARLY THURSDAY.
NORTH OF KERN ... MONO AND NORTH to LASSEN COUNTY
BULK of storm to miss KERN ... MAYBE. Next storm 18-20FEb will likely hit KERN AND SOUTH to Los Angeles
[quote]FOR TODAY...MILD TEMPERATURES WILL STICK AROUND AND BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY WITH LOWER VALLEYS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND SIERRA
LOCATIONS IN THE 50S. WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY THIS
MORNING...ALLOWING THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY AT LAKE TAHOE TO BE
CANCELLED. THIS BREAK IN THE WINDS...WITH WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND
50 MPH ALONG THE RIDGES...WILL NOT STICK AROUND VERY LONG AS THE
TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD TONIGHT.
FOR MONDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE ALONG THE RIDGES INITIALLY BRINGING
50 TO 60KT 700MB FLOW TO THE REGION BY 12Z MONDAY. NAM BUFKIT
SOUNDING STILL SHOWING A CRITICAL LAYER MONDAY MORNING WHICH WILL
PROVIDE THE MECHANISM FOR A SIGNIFICANT DOWNSLOPE WIND EVENT
AFFECTING RENO AND SOUTHWARD ALONG THE HIGHWAY 395 CORRIDOR. MONDAY WIND
GUSTS ALONG THE RIDGES...ESPECIALLY IN THE TAHOE AND MONO...COULD
REACH BETWEEN 85 AND 100 MPH AT TIMES. [b]HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS FOR
PERSISTENT AND WIDESPREAD ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR HIGHER WIND GUSTS IN WIND PRONE LOCATIONS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE HIGH WIND WATCH IS STILL IN PLACE OVER THE ENTIRE AREA FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. DECIDED TO LEAVE BREAKING UP REGION INTO MORE
SPECIFIC WIND STATEMENTS FOR THE FOLLOWING SHIFT. KEPT IN BLOWING
DUST FOR THE LOWER VALLEYS SINCE MOST OF THOSE LOCATIONS HAVE NOT
HAD MUCH RAIN SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR.
MOST PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN CONFINED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE CREST
WITH SOME CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR NORTHERN CWA. [b]TUESDAY
EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES... CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL INCREASE ALONG THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA. EXPECT THE
HEAVIEST QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS TO REMAIN ALONG THE RIDGES IN THE
TAHOE BASIN AND NORTHWARD INTO PLUMAS AND WESTERN LASSEN COUNTY FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO FALL RAPIDLY IN THESE AREAS
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SNOW TO BEGIN AFFECTING HIGHER SIERRA
PASSES. LINDAMAN
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE LONGWAVE PATTERN THROUGH NEXT
WEEK. STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW ON WEDNESDAY AND COLD TEMPS THE REST OF THE
WEEK.
SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE JET PUSHES
SOUTH ALONG THE SIERRA...WITH SPILLOVER INCREASING EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES DOWN. INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL
HELP GET THE SPILLOVER INTO WESTERN NV...WITH SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AS SNOW LEVELS CRASH DOWN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
STRONG FRONTOGENESIS COULD CAUSE A FEW HOURS OF SNOW ACCUMULATION
INTO THE LOWER VALLEYS ON WEDNESDAY...EVEN MORE IF IT COMES THROUGH
THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE
TIMING AND DURATION OF THE LOW LEVEL FORCING WITH REGARD TO SNOW
AMOUNTS IN THE DESERT VALLEYS.
AS [b]FOR THE SIERRA...WEDNESDAY WILL BE A DAY OF CONTINUOUS MODERATE
TO HEAVY SNOWFALL...WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF UP TO 2-3 INCHES PER HOUR
AT TIMES. STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL IN THE EASTERN SIERRA OF WESTERN
LASSEN COUNTY...EASTERN PLUMAS COUNTY...THE LAKE TAHOE BASIN AND
MONO COUNTY WILL END UP BETWEEN 1 TO 2 FEET WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE SIERRA CREST. MODELS HAVE BEEN REALLY CONSISTENT
WITH THE OVERALL QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS...BUT DETAILS OF THE SNOW TOTALS
WILL GET IRONED OUT IN THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. [b]HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL
LIKELY CREATE DELAYS AND/OR ROAD CLOSURES IN THE SIERRA ESPECIALLY
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINTER STORM WATCH MAY NEED TO BE
ISSUED LATER TODAY.
ANOTHER UPPER LOW LOOKS TO AFFECT THE REGION AS WE GO INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...BUT MODELS ARE INCONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING. THIS WOULD
BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF SNOW TO THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NV SOUTH OF
I-80. CONTINUED TO TREND POPS UPWARD FOR THIS SECOND SYSTEM AS
MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THE OVERALL IDEA...ALTHOUGH TIMING IS
AT VERY LOW CONFIDENCE BEYOND THURSDAY. WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
SETTLING INTO THE WESTERN STATES THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...COLD
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND PERIOD
OF SNOW SHOWERS UNDERNEATH THE COLD POOL ALOFT. HOON
Likely 1/2-1 inches rain/snow Tuesday-Wednesday THEN 2-3 inches rain/snow Friday Saturday For KERN and Los Angeles County.
Don't know about Tulare / San Bernandino.
You must log in to post.