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Storm forecast 24-27 Feb Thur-Sun

(6 posts)

  1. donbrown
    Member

    321 AM EST WED FEB 23 2011

    VALID 12Z WED FEB 23 2011 - 12Z SAT FEB 26 2011

    DAYS 1-3...
    FOR THE MOST PART...THE 06Z HPC QPF /12Z FOR DAY 3/ WAS USED AS A
    TEMPLATE FOR PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...WHICH SHIED AWAY FROM THE
    DRIER 12Z ECMWF ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS WELL AS THE MORE
    DEPRESSED 00Z GFS WITH THE LOW MOVING EAST OF THE ROCKIES. SEE
    THE QPF DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS ON HOW THE PRECIPITATION
    AMOUNTS WERE DERIVED. ON DAY ONE...A BLEND OF THE
    GFS...NAM...SREF MEAN...AND CANADIAN WERE USED AS DIFFERENCES
    AMONGST THE GUIDANCE WERE WITHIN THE NOISE LEVEL. TEMPERATURE
    PROFILES ON DAYS 2-3 WERE MAINLY DERIVED FROM THE 21Z SREF MEAN
    AND 12Z/00Z CANADIAN /WITH A HINT OF THE 00Z NAM/ FROM THURSDAY
    ONWARD TO PICK THE BEST COMPROMISE TRACK FOR THE LOW MOVING
    THROUGH THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY/NORTHEAST...AND THE MORE LIKELY
    MODEL SCENARIO OUT WEST PER THE MODEL DIAGNOSTICS DISCUSSION.

    WEST...
    A DEEP CYCLONE MOVING DOWN THE WEST COAST WILL BRING WELL BELOW
    NORMAL TEMPS AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH WIDESPREAD AREAS OF
    SNOW...EVEN TO LOCATIONS NEAR THE PACIFIC COASTLINE AND THE VALLEY
    FLOOR OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. ONSHORE FLOW WILL SHIFT FROM
    WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WITH TIME...WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY FAVOR
    THE SIERRA NEVADA AS THE BIG WINNER FOR SNOW TOTALS OVER THE NEXT
    FEW DAYS. LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 2-3 FEET ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
    MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST COLORADO...THE WASATCH...THE SIERRA
    NEVADA...THE CASCADES...AND THE TOPOGRAPHY ALONG THE COAST NEAR
    THE OREGON/CALIFORNIA BORDER.

    Posted 1 year ago #

  2. donbrown
    Member

    Lake Isabella / to Kernville

    Thursday Night: Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 27. West northwest wind between 14 and 20 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

    Friday: Snow. High near 44. West northwest wind between 15 and 18 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

    Friday Night: Snow likely. Cloudy and blustery, with a low around 30. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

    Saturday: Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 30. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.

    Saturday Night: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 22.

    Sunday: Partly sunny, with a high near 42.

    Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 30.

    Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 48.

    Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 31.

    Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 48.

    Posted 1 year ago #

  3. donbrown
    Member

    Still not sure how low snow levels will be

    237 AM PST WED FEB 23 2011

    .SYNOPSIS...

    HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP SKIES MAINLY CLEAR UNTIL THURSDAY.
    CONDITIONS WILL THEN BECOME UNSETTLED AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
    DIGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA...WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW AND VALLEY RAIN
    POSSIBLE...THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE WEEKEND. SNOW COULD FALL IN
    THE FOOTHILLS...AND KERN COUNTY DESERT BY FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
    TROUGH BRINGS COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.

    &&

    .DISCUSSION...THE OFFSHORE UPPER LOW HAS NOW PASSED WELL TO THE
    SOUTHWEST AND NOW SOME HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE NOW MOVING
    INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AS WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDES OVER THE TOP OF
    THE RIDGE. FOR TODAY A NEAR REPEAT OF TUESDAY`S CONDITIONS WILL
    OCCUR WITH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES.
    ALL EYES CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WHICH IS
    NOW TAKING SHAPE OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA. FORECAST
    MODELS CONTINUE TO REMAIN STEADY IN BRINGING THIS POTENTIALLY VERY
    COLD AND UNSTABLE SYSTEM INTO AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
    BEGINNING LATER THURSDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD ON
    FRIDAY AND THEN THE VERY COLD UPPER LOW TRAVERSING THE REGION ON
    SATURDAY. FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS COULD BE THE COLDEST
    STORM OF THE SEASON AND SNOW LEVELS COULD FALL TO LESS THAN 1000
    FEET ON SATURDAY AS THE COLD POOL ALOFT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. IN
    THE SIERRA NEVADA AND FOOTHILLS, SNOW IS A GIVEN AND WINTER STORM
    WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY. FOR THE KERN COUNTY
    DESERT AND MOUNTAIN AREAS IT SHOULD CERTAINLY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
    SNOW HOWEVER THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE FOR WARNING
    CONDITIONS REMAINS A LITTLE SKETCHY.     WINTER STORM PRODUCTS ARE
    QUITE LIKELY IN THESE AREAS ALSO.

    FOR THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY, THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL MOST LIKELY BE
    A COLD RAIN EVENT. THERE STILL IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT ENOUGH COLD
    AIR WILL ACCOMPANY THE SYSTEM TO PRODUCE EITHER A RAIN AND SNOW
    MIX AT TIMES IN HEAVIER CONVECTIVE SHOWERS OR EVEN TURN OVER TO
    ALL SNOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD ON SATURDAY IN LOCALIZED AREAS. AGAIN,
    STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS SCENARIO AS IT IS LATE FEBRUARY
    AND THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT AND THE CONVECTION MUST MATCH UP FOR
    SNOW ON THE VALLEY FLOOR TO BE REALIZED. THE GRIDS WILL NOT
    INCLUDE SNOW BELOW 1000 FEET AT THIS TIME.

    BY LATER SATURDAY FORECAST MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN
    ACCELERATING THE LOW TO THE EAST AND BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
    POSITIONING IT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. I HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS FOR
    SUNDAY IN RESPONSE. NEXT WEEK LOOKS MAINLY DRY HOWEVER THE ECMWF
    MODEL STILL TRIES TO BRING SOME PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR NORTH ON
    TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

    Posted 1 year ago #

  4. donbrown
    Member

    STORM IS LOOSING MOMENTUM

    Snow levels to 1500 feet 0-4 inches at 3000 feet Friday afternoon to Saturday morning for Kernville - area

    Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 25. Northwest wind between 13 and 16 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph.

    Thursday: Partly sunny, with a high near 44. West northwest wind between 13 and 17 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph.

    Thursday Night: Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 27. West northwest wind between 14 and 20 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.

    Friday: Snow. High near 44. West northwest wind between 15 and 18 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.

    Friday Night: Snow. Low around 30. Blustery, with a west northwest wind 19 to 22 mph decreasing to between 11 and 14 mph. Winds could gust as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.

    Saturday: Snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 30. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.

    Saturday Night: A 40 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 22. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

    Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 42.

    Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 30.

    Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 48.

    Posted 1 year ago #

  5. donbrown
    Member

    Very strong wind advisory.

    100mph gusts likely from Truckee to Mono County.

    Suppose to snow from downtown San Francisco to Mexico .... at least flurries.

    Mountains are still suppose to get snow up front then 18-24 hours later snow at the back end.

    If this happens like last time ... year 1976 ... the mountain folks snow will get fine powder dust and just blow away while the foothills will get some snow 1 to 6 inches down to a few thousand feet friday night into saturday morning. Estimated to be from San Francisco to Kings Canyon.

    Blue skies are expected SUNDAY 27 Feb.

    Posted 1 year ago #

  6. donbrown
    Member

    SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
    1015 AM PST THU FEB 24 2011

    ...NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION...

    .SYNOPSIS...
    COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY. ON FRIDAY AND
    SATURDAY...A COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND LOW
    ELEVATION SNOW TO THE AREA. DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
    EARLY NEXT WEEK.

    &&

    .SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...
    OVERNIGHT COOLING HAS GREATLY DIMINISHED MOST OF YDYS STRATCU DECK
    BUT AS TEMPS WARM LATER THIS MORNING THE CLOUDS WILL RETURN AND MOST
    COASTAL AND VLY SITES WILL HAVE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
    THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. A WEAK SOUTH FLOW WILL JAM SOME CLOUDS
    INTO THE FOOTHILLS OF THE SAN GABRIEL VLY AND COULD PRODUCE SOME
    DRIZZLE THIS MORNING. CHILLY AFTERNOON HIGHS WITH MAX TEMPS NEAR 60
    ACROSS MOST CSTS AND VLYS.

    FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARE SHAPING UP TO BE VERY INTERESTING AS THE
    COLDEST STORM IN AT LEAST A DECADE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE STORM
    IS CURRENTLY OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND WITH AN ARCTIC HGT OF 519DM. IT
    WILL ROTATE DOWN TO THE WASHINGTON COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND ITS
    PRECIP SHIELD WILL STRETCH DOWN THE BAY AREA. BY DAWN FRIDAY THE LOW
    WILL BE OVER OREGON AND THE RAIN WILL SPREAD AS FAR SOUTH AS SLO
    COUNTY. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON RAIN WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
    COAST AND THERE WILL BE GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN OVER AREAS SOUTH OF
    POINT CONCEPTION THE COLD FRONT WILL STRADDLE THE SLO/MRY COUNTY
    LINE. THE 500 MB HGT OVER KSMX WILL BE 555DM WHILE BEHIND THE FRONT
    OVER THE BAY AREA THE HGTS WILL BE 537 DM. THE FRONT WILL DRIVE
    THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND BRING WITH
    IT A GOOD SHOT OF SLUG OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW.
    BEHIND THE FRONT THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY AND EVEN A
    SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS AS THE COLD CORE OF THE LOW MOVES OVER
    THE AREA WITH 500 MB TEMPS NEAR -35 DEGREES C WHICH IS ONLY THE
    SECOND TIME SINCE 1977 THAT 500 MB TEMPS THIS LOW HAVE BEEN SEEN
    (JAN 30 2002 WAS THE ONLY OTHER TIME) THE LOW THEN QUICKLY SCOOTS
    OUT TO THE EAST SUNDAY EVENING AND THE SHOWER THREAT WILL DIMINISH
    TO ZERO EARLY ACROSS THE SLO AND SBA COUNTY AND THEN BY MIDNIGHT FOR
    LA VTA COUNTIES EXCEPT THE MTNS WHERE SOME WRAP AROUND WILL KEEP THE
    SHOWER CHC GOING UNTIL DAWN.

    IF IT WERE NOT SO COLD THIS WOULD BE A RUN OF THE MILL STORM. MDLS
    ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH QPF WITH THE WEAKEST EC FORECASTING
    AROUND A QUARTER INCH CST/VLYS AND AN INCH MTNS TO THE NAM WHICH IS
    CALLING FOR .75-1.5 CST VLYS 2-4 INCHES MTNS. THE GFS SPLITS THE
    DIFFERENCE AND SEEMS PRETTY REASONABLE SINCE THE SYSTEM IS SO COLD
    IT WILL NOT BE ABLE TO HOLD MUCH MOISTURE. SO LOOK FOR A HALF INCH
    TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH CST/VLYS AND 1-2 INCHES IN THE
    MTNS...THAT IS IF IT FALLS AS RAIN...

    THIS WILL BE A SNOW STORM AS SNOW LEVELS WILL START OUT BETWEEN 4000
    AND 5000 FEET FRIDAY AND THEN LOWER TO BETWEEN 500 AND 1500 FEET
    SATURDAY. ALMOST ALL THE PRECIP IN THE MTNS WILL FALL AS SNOW
    IMPACTING ALL MTN TRAVEL (NOTE TO TRAVELERS WHO NEED TO GO THROUGH
    THE MTNS FRIDAY NIGHT - LEAVE EARLY) BY SATURDAY MORNING SNOW WILL
    BE FALLING ACROSS THE INTERIOR VLYS AND THE ANTELOPE VLY. SNOW WILL
    BE FALLING ACROSS THE SANTA MONICA RANGE. SNOW WILL LIKELY FALL IN
    THE FOOTHILLS OF THE COASTAL VLYS. THE CENTRAL COAST MAY SEE RAIN
    MIXED WITH SNOW IN PLACES LIKE SANTA MARIA AND SLO. 1 TO 2 FEET OF
    SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN THE LA/VTA MTNS A LITTLE LESS OVER THE SBA MTNS.
    4 TO 6 INCHES IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SLO INTERIOR VLY...THE CUYAMA
    VLY AND THE ANTELOPE VLY. THERE IS A CHC 6 INCHES OR MORE COULD FALL
    ACROSS THE HIGHER RIDGETOPS OF THE SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS. ALL OF
    THESE AREAS ARE NOW UNDER A WINTER STORM WATCH.

    WITH THE OH SO VERY COLD CORE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD SATURDAY A SLIGHT
    CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

    Posted 1 year ago #

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