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Storm split in 2 ... now 2 storms

(8 posts)

  1. donbrown
    Member

    Truckee at 100 % likely to get snow Wednesday ... center of storm is Yosemite ... yet most of moistire north of storm center.

    Mammoth at 90%

    Isabella at 80%

    Mon-Tues light rain with severe winds up to 100 MPH gusts.

    Then snow storm .. WED-THURS about 3 inches water so now they say 3-4 feet of snow Mammoth to Truckee at 8000 feet. 14-17 feb

    Next storm Friday Saturday hit SOCAL with 1-3 inches rain. Levels to 4000 feet. 18-19 feb Center of storm is Ventura

    FORCASTING MORE STORMS 21-26 feb but forecasters are unsure of the accurACY ... stay tuned.

    MAMMOTH REPORT It will not be until Wednesday for the Moderate to Heavy snowfall. The cold front will probably come through early afternoon. Snowfall rates will increase to 2 to 3 inches per hour during the afternoon. HPC has a 2.84 bulls-eye of storm near Yosemite for the 48 hours period between 4:00am Wednesday and 4:00am Friday. Although it appears that the lions share of precipitation of this storm will be up in Northern California, Mammoth Mountain could pick up as much as 3 feet by Thursday. The snow will be Cold and Powdery from Wednesday afternoon through the following several days. Ratios will begin about 10:1 then increase to 15:1 to as high as 20:1 by Wednesday night.

    NOAA weather service says less for KERN/TULARE/FRESNO area ...
    2/14-17 not much but lots on 2/18-19 fri-sat

    .DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE FIRST IMPULSE OF SEVERAL
    NOW JUST ARRIVING ONSHORE IN THE BAY AREA AND MONTEREY RADAR SHOWS
    THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION APPROACHING. IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM,
    WINDS HAVE PICKED UP QUITE A BIT ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE SAN
    JOAQUIN VALLEY WITH TWISSELMAN AND KETTLEMAN HILLS REPORTING GUSTS
    IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH. MESONET STATION IN AVENAL ALSO SHOWS SIMILAR
    GUSTS. THIS FIRST TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY NOT PRODUCE
    MUCH PRECIPITATION OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AS IT RIDES UP THE WEST
    SIDE OF THE SEEMINGLY PERMANENT WEST COAST RIDGE WHICH HAS NOW
    SHIFTED TO THE EAST. THE BRUNT OF THE PRECIPITATION TODAY 2/14 WILL
    REMAIN TO THE NORTH FRESNO AS THE FRONT WEAKENS MOVING INLAND.
    TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NOW LOOK MAINLY DRY AS FORECAST MODELS KEEP A
    SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO CALIFORNIA BUT LIMIT THE INCOMING
    PRECIPITATION TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. BY WEDNESDAY THINGS CHANGE
    AS A DEEPER AND COLDER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS WELL AGREED UPON
    BY ALL FORECAST MODELS TO PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA BRING
    WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND COLDER AIR. THE LATEST MODEL FORECAST
    PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS RANGE FROM AROUND ONE INCH AT MERCED AND
    FRESNO TO AROUND TWO-TENTHS OF AN INCH AT BAKERSFIELD THROUGH MID
    DAY THURSDAY.

    MORE POTENTIALLY COLDER AND WET WEATHER IS IN THE OFFING FOR
    FRIDAY 2/18 AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
    (EUROPEAN) FORECAST MODELS DRIVE A SYSTEM ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
    AND THEN BRING A DEEP AND COLD CLOSED LOW INTO THE CENTRAL COAST
    ON SATURDAY.     ALL IN ALL A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN IS SETTING UP THIS
    WEEK IN THIS SEASON OF DRAMATIC SWINGS FROM WET TO DRY TO WET AGAIN.
    WINTER STORM WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY LATER TODAY FOR THE
    MID WEEK STORM.

    Posted 1 year ago #

  2. donbrown
    Member

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Entire state of California has greater than 50%chance of rain on Wednesday and greater than 90% from Kern to Lassen.

    From Los Angeles County to Eureka has 90% chance of snow above 5000 feet.

    Two big storms this week. 15 Feb to early 17 Feb (Tuesday to Thursday)2-3 inches water from Kern County to Eureka. Approaching from the north.

    Snow will be powdery ratio 15:1

    Forecasting 2-3 feet snow above 7000 feet from Kern County thru Oregon.Most moisture north of center which is predicted to be Yosemite

    Second Storm 18 - 19 February (Friday Sat) Approaching Southern storm snow acc likely from 4000 feet above. Center is Ventura west of Los Angeles. Expect 2-3 inches in Los Angeles and surrounding areas and diminish to 1 inch water Mono County.

    Expect 3-5 feet of snow at 7000 feet from Kern County to Eureka by Sat 20 Feb.

    Next storm front Tuesday 22 Feb. ... and don't know much yet !

    [b]
    Mammoth forcast at least 5 feet by Saturday.

    Kern forecast at least 3 feet by Saturday !

    Will stay cold for at least a week.

    Detail for Kern from NOAA


    .DISCUSSION...FORECAST AREA IS NOW FIRMLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
    CYCLONIC SOUTHWEST FLOW. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE FORMED ALONG THE
    COASTAL AREAS HOWEVER DUE TO OROGRAPHICS AFFECTS NONE HAVE MADE IT
    INTO THE INTERIOR OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. FOR TODAY THE CHANCES OF
    PRECIPITATION ARE SMALL AS THE COLD FRONT IS ONLY SLOWLY MOVING
    SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD
    AGREEMENT SLOWING THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT AND NOW BRING THE
    BOUNDARY INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA LATE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
    WEDNESDAY. LATEST FORECAST QPF STILL SHOWS 2-3 INCHES OF WATER
    EQUIVALENT IN THE SIERRA AND SHOULD EASILY TRANSLATE INTO 2-3 FEET
    OF SNOW. THE WINTER STORM WATCH WILL BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING
    LATER THIS MORNING. THIS FIRST STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST
    ON WEDNESDAY AND BY THURSDAY THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN A COLDER
    AIRMASS HOWEVER FORECAST MODELS ARE NOT PROJECTING MUCH ADDITIONAL
    QPF UNTIL LATER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A VERY COLD LOW MOVES DOWN
    THE COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING SNOW TO RATHER LOW
    ELEVATIONS AS THE AIRMASS ORIGINATES IN ALASKA. THIS WEEKEND COULD
    BRING SOME MEMORABLE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS AND FUTURE WATCHES
    AND/OR WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
    BY SUNDAY THE AREA SHOULD BE DRY AND THE LOW MOVES TO THE EAST.
    MODELS DIVERGE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE GFS BRINGING YET ANOTHER
    VERY COLD LOW SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA ON MONDAY NIGHT
    AND TUESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF MODEL KEEPS THIS SYSTEM WELL TO THE
    NORTH. GET READY FOR SOME MORE WINTER.

    Posted 1 year ago #

  3. donbrown
    Member

    Updates twice a day - 12-24 hour prediction

    null

    Posted 1 year ago #

  4. donbrown
    Member

    First storm on track 2-3 feet by Thursday morning. 7000 feet and above.
    SECOND STORM HAS MOVE FROM EPICENTER VENTURA TO EPICENTER KERN !!! Expect more snow FRI_SAT than WED_THUR with levels to valley floor 4000 feet

    AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
    [b]219 AM PST WED FEB 16 2011

    .SYNOPSIS...
    A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA THROUGH
    THURSDAY MORNING BRINGING WINTER CONDITIONS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND
    FOOTHILLS ALONG WITH RAIN IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. ADDITIONAL
    SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST
    SATURDAY.

    &&

    .DISCUSSION...RADAR SHOWS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE RAIN AND SNOW
    NOW PUSHING SOUTHEAST ACROSS MERCED COUNTY AND INTO THE SIERRA.
    THIS SOUTHEAST PUSH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH MUCH OF
    THE AREA RECEIVING RAIN OR SNOW BY MID MORNING. CURRENT GRIDDED
    FORECAST HAS THIS TREND HANDLED WELL. LATEST DATA SHOWS WIND
    ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS IN THE KERN COUNTY DESERT TODAY AND WILL
    CONVERT THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WIND ADVISORY IN ZONES 98-99.
    LATEST MODEL QPF INDICATES A HEALTHY 2 TO 3 INCHES OF WATER
    EQUIVALENT IN THE SIERRA WHICH EASILY TRANSLATES INTO 2 TO 3 FEET
    OF SNOW THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS IS COVERED NICELY BY THE CURRENT
    WINTER STORM WARNING. IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY, THIS FIRST SYSTEM
    IS PROJECTED TO BRING AROUND .50" AT FRESNO AND AROUND .25" IN
    BAKERSFIELD.     AS THE FIRST IMPULSE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA LATE
    TONIGHT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE A BREAK IN THE
    PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY HOWEVER IN THE MOUNTAINS THE FLOW WILL
    REMAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE AND ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL
    CONTINUE. ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THE NEXT ROUND OF
    WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS PROGGED TO REACH THE NORTHERN PARTS OF
    THE FORECAST AREA WITH KERN COUNTY GETTING THE MOST RAIN AND
    MOUNTAIN SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY. THE THURSDAY
    NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE AS STRONG AND MAYBE
    EVEN STRONGER THAN TODAY`S EVENT THUS ADDITIONAL WINTER STORM
    WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY. I HAVE UPPED THE
    CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR THIS FEATURE AS THE TIMING IS GETTING
    MORE CERTAIN.

    SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOK MAINLY DRY HOWEVER ANOTHER COLD LOW
    PRESSURE SYSTEM IF PROGGED TO ARRIVE TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY
    AS THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS DISAGREE ON TIMING. ALL IN ALL LOTS OF
    WINTER WEATHER FOR THE NEXT WEEK.

    Posted 1 year ago #

  5. donbrown
    Member

    Storm 1 is here ... MOST snowfall MONO to ALPINE ... expect 2-3 feet and double the depth at the crest/mountain peaks.

    STORM 2 is 18-19 February ... epicenter moved from VEntura / LA area to Kern/TULARE (moved north) so expected more snow from KERN to MONO than predicted.

    STORM 3 FEB 22-24 ... a cold one but forecast models unsure where it hits ... PROJECTED to hit ocean just off California coast .

    storm 4 Another HUGE storm expected 28FEB to 2 MAR ... BIG MAYBE

    Posted 1 year ago #

  6. donbrown
    Member

    Mammoth forecast is declaring 3 feet at lodge by end Thurs 17 Feb AND ANOTHER 3.5 to 4.5 FEET by SUN 20 FEB.

    Total 6-7 feet at lodge by Sunday 20 Feb !

    Posted 1 year ago #

  7. donbrown
    Member

    Storm 2 epicenter has been moving north and is now expected to dump most just north of KINGS Canyon.

    Storm will start cold then warm and then get cold. Snow levels to fluctuate 3500-5000 feet.

    Storm 2 will still hit Kern Tulare but not as hard as first projected .. was 1-3 valley and 3 inches plus water plus at mountain crest. AROUND 1-3 feet at 5000 feet.
    STORMS EXPECTED TO continue thru Saturday Mono County and North.

    Sunday expected blue sky day until Monday where new storm rolls into area.

    Thursday is a break for Fresno and south.

    [quote]LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE SIERRA NORTH OF KINGS
    CANYON...SPREADING SOUTH THIS EVENING AND AFFECTING THE KERN
    COUNTY MOUNTAINS BY LATER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THE WINTER STORM
    WATCH FOR THE MOUNTAIN AREAS HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A WARNING FOR
    THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW...WITH THE WATCH
    CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO TRACK
    ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
    PRECIPITATION. WINDS ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE VALLEY ARE
    EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH THE PASSING SYSTEM...GUSTING TO ADVISORY
    LEVELS TODAY. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THERE FOR TODAY.

    SATURDAY THE DEVELOPING UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO TRACK OVERHEAD AND
    COULD GENERATE SOME AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE DISTRICT.
    MODELS SUGGEST A BREAK IN THE ACTION EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER
    LOW DEPARTS AND A TRAILING LOW DROPS SOUTH JUST OFF THE COAST. THE
    UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO SWING INLAND NEAR NORTHERN BAJA AROUND
    MIDWEEK WHILE ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH...BRINGING
    MORE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE DISTRICT.

    Posted 1 year ago #

  8. donbrown
    Member

    Heading to Isabella so last entry.

    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
    FOR KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AROUND ISABELLA
    220 PM PST THU FEB 17 2011

    .SYNOPSIS...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE REGION
    AS ADDITIONAL STORM SYSTEMS ARE SLATED TO IMPACT THE REGION INTO
    NEXT WEEK. HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOW AND VALLEY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE AT
    TIMES. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE SAN
    JOAQUIN VALLEY INTO EARLY EVENING, AND A HIGH WIND WATCH IS IN
    EFFECT FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR THE GRAPEVINE.

    &&

    .DISCUSSION...WV/IR INDICATING A VIGOROUS UPPER PACIFIC SHORTWAVE
    PUSHING INTO THE NORTH BAY AREA WITH AN AREA OF WIDESPREAD
    PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORCAL. RADAR COMPOSITES INDICATE THE
    PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN GRAZING NORTHERN MERCED AND MARIPOSA
    COUNTIES BUT THE REMAINDER OUR CWFA HAS REMAINED DRY TODAY...AND
    IN THE CASE OF TULARE AND KERN COUNTIES...MOSTLY SUNNY. THE MAIN
    CONCERN FOR OUR AREA HAS ACTUALLY BEEN THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD
    OF THE INCOMING TROUGH. WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING BETWEEN 35 AND 40
    MPH ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND ALSO IN THE
    MERCED AREA AND THE WIND ADVISORY ISSUED EARLIER FOR THE WEST SIDE
    OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY FOR TODAY HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE
    THE EAST CENTRAL PORTION OF THE VALLEY. THE LACK OF PRECIPITATION
    TODAY AND ANTICIPATED DELAY OF THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE
    AREAS SOUTH OF FRESNO COUNTY UNTIL LATE TONIGHT OR FRIDAY...HAS
    JUSTIFIED THE CANCELLATION OF THE WINTER STORM WARNING THAT HAD
    BEEN IN EFFECT FOR THE TULARE AND KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS FOR
    TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

    12Z WRF/GFS INDICATE PRECIPITATION WILL PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHWARD
    THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR CWFA TONIGHT AS DEEPER MOISTURE
    AND UVM INCREASE SO HAVE LEFT THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE
    SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA FROM YOSEMITE TO KINGS CANYON FOR TONIGHT
    AND FRIDAY IN PLACE. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
    DEEPENING AN UPPER TROUGH OFF THE CA COAST LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
    AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS...INCREASED OFFSHORE P-GRADS WILL RESULT IN
    STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS OVER THE FAR SOUTH END OF THE SAN JOAQUIN
    VALLEY. A HIGH WIND WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THIS AREA FOR LATE
    TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THIS WILL IMPACT TRAVEL OVER I-5.     RH PROGS
    INDICATING INCREASING MOISTURE SPREADING ACROSS OUR CWFA BY LATE
    FRIDAY.

    A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN
    SIERRA NEVADA AND TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
    SATURDAY WITH SNOW LEVELS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 4000 FEET ON
    FRIDAY NIGHT LOWERING TO 3000 TO 3500 FEET BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
    HEAVY SNOWFALL IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME
    FRAME AND TRAVEL OVER THE PASSES IN KERN COUNTY WILL LIKELY BE
    ADVERSELY IMPACTED.
    OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS A PERIOD OF LIGHT TO
    MODERATE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER A WIDESPREAD AREA. THE MODELS
    CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD LESS INSTABILITY AND CAPE ON SATURDAY
    OVER OUR AREA. WHILE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
    THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS AS WELL AS OVER
    PORTIONS OF THE KERN COUNTY DESERTS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON...SEVERE
    WEATHER IS UNLIKELY. THE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO CROSS CA
    SATURDAY
    NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY WITH DECREASING SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME
    FRAME AS AN UNUSUALLY COLD AIRMASS PUSHES INTO CENTRAL CA.
    LATER
    SHIFTS WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR THE POTENTIAL WIDESPREAD
    FROST IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY ON SATURDAY NIGHT IF SKIES CLEAR
    OUT EARLY ENOUGH.

    Posted 1 year ago #

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